New Reality. Forecasts and Scenarios of Grain & Oil Markets in Ukraine. 2022-2025

Large-scale military actions in Ukraine have caused massive disruptions in supply chains, a sharp drop in grain exports, significant increase in the global prices and a shortage of food supply. Millions of stocks, including wheat, corn, sunseed and sun oil still remain in Ukraine.

According to UkrAgroConsult, the spread between world and domestic prices for grains, oilseeds and processed products has broken multi-year highs.

And this is only a tip of the iceberg of the changes that have taken place and are expected as a result of the war.

UkrAgroconsult has prepared its vision of the large-scale changes that are highly likely in the short and medium term. We considered market development scenarios, as well as new factors and challenges for investors, traders, farmers in the near future.

The research examines the following:

  • What is the impact of war on Ukrainian economy?
  • Main problems of agribusiness. A sharp drop in exports with a huge export potential. Are there any exceptions?
  • Harvest forecast for the new 2022/23 MY. How to live in 2023-2025?
  • Reduced farmer’s margin and farmers’ decisions
  • Land market. Demand and land prices
  • New leaders, changes and trends in grain and oilseed processing sector
  • Reduction in domestic consumption of agri commodities and food. When to expect recovery?
  • Regional shifts in crop production and processing sector
  • Should an investment and construction boom be expected in the agricultural sector of the Western Ukraine?
  • What will replace the destroyed and blocked transshipment capacities?

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