Wheat prices are rising against the backdrop of the blocking of exports from Ukraine by the grain corridor and EU countries

Wheat quotations on world exchanges started the week with a 2-2.5% increase on the news about the Russian blocking of the grain corridor and the ban by the third EU country on the export of agricultural products from Ukraine.

After protests by local farmers, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary have banned the export of grain from Ukraine until June 30, although the European Commission opposes steps that contradict EU decisions, so the issue will be discussed in Brussels in a few days.

At best, the pressure of the Ukrainian harvest on the EU markets would be reduced by the unblocking of the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, but for more than a year, world institutions have not been able to force the Russian Federation to fulfill the requirements of the unhindered movement of vessels through the international waters of the Black Sea.

Yesterday, May futures on world exchanges rose:

• by 2% to $255.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.6% for the week),
• by 1.3% to $326.9/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.6%),
• by 1.5% to $316.8/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+1.7%),
• by 0.1% to $279.75/t – for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (0%).
• by 2.4% to 255 €/t or $280/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+1.5%).

European wheat is the most active against the backdrop of the blocking of exports from Ukraine to the EU.

Ukraine exported 574,000 tons of wheat in the first half of April (651,000 tons in the same period in March), and in total for the season – 13.57 million tons (18.45 million tons on this date last year), out of the 14.5 million tons predicted by the USDA.

In the US, cold, rainy weather is delaying spring wheat planting in the Great Plains, supporting prices. According to the weekly Crop Progress report, as of April 16, 3% of the planned area was planted with spring wheat, compared with 8% last year and 7% of the 5-year average as of this date.

The number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition remained at last week’s level of 27% (30% last year), but the condition of crops deteriorated in Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma.

During the period of April 7-13 in the USA, the amount of wheat inspected for export decreased by 38% compared to the previous week to 239,907 thousand tons, and the total export of the season reached 17.5 million tons, which is 3.4% lower than last year’s pace. In order to reach the USDA forecast of 21.09 million tons at the end of the season, it is necessary to export 550,000 tons every week.

Cold, rainy weather in the US and Ukraine is delaying the sowing of spring wheat. And after the end of the optimal sowing dates, farmers can sow part of the area not with wheat, but with late crops.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA, restrictions, Ukraine, EU