Argentina increases wheat exports as Brazil faces a smaller harvest

Argentina is recording exceptionally strong wheat exports at the end of the MY 2025/26 and is preparing for a further increase in shipments next season. According to estimates from the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR), the country exported nearly 2 mln tons of wheat in September–October 2026, setting an all-time record for the two-month period. Additional opportunities for Argentine exporters are emerging as wheat production declines in neighboring Brazil, which remains one of the key markets for Argentine grain.

Stronger export activity has been accompanied by an increase in domestic grain transportation to ports. In October, more than 980 thsd tons of wheat were delivered to Argentine ports by truck, the highest volume recorded for that month in recent years. Greater Rosario accounted for a record 76% of all wheat deliveries to the country’s ports. The increase in shipments reflects strong demand for Argentine wheat toward the end of the marketing year.

Argentina is expected to maintain significant export potential in the new season, supported by substantial stocks and a strong production outlook. According to BCR estimates, wheat production is projected at around 23.8 mln tons, while carryover stocks are expected to exceed 5 mln tons. As a result, total available wheat supplies could reach approximately 29 mln tons. These volumes provide a solid basis for active export shipments, particularly to South American markets.

Argentine traders are paying particular attention to Brazil, where unfavorable weather conditions have significantly weakened wheat production prospects. According to Brazil’s national supply agency Conab, wheat output in 2026/27 is forecast to decline by 27.2% to 5.73 mln tons. Excessive rainfall in the states of Paraná and São Paulo has not only reduced yields but also damaged grain quality. As a result, domestic production is expected to cover just 47% of Brazil’s wheat requirements, down from 63% in the previous season, increasing the country’s dependence on foreign suppliers.

Meanwhile, further growth in Argentine wheat exports will depend on competition in the global market. Russia, in particular, is increasing shipments through Baltic ports. According to SovEcon estimates, Russian wheat exports reached around 2.9 mln tons in October, the highest monthly volume since the beginning of the season. Further changes in Black Sea logistics could intensify competition among exporters. However, Argentina’s geographical proximity to Brazil, established trade relationships and substantial wheat supplies provide significant advantages in competing for the Brazilian market.

Tags: grain export, Brazil, wheat, Argentina