China raises soybean import estimate to 111.6 mln tons but expects lower purchases next season

China’s Ministry of Agriculture raised its soybean import estimate for the MY 2025/26 to 111.62 mln tons in its November CASDE report, compared with 109.37 mln tons in the previous season. Meanwhile, the import forecast for 2026/27 remained unchanged at 95.5 mln tons, down 16.12 mln tons, or 14.4%, from the estimated volume for the previous season. According to the ministry, global soybean supplies remain ample, supported by strong harvests in major producing countries.

China’s soybean production in 2025/26 is estimated at 20.91 mln tons, while output in 2026/27 is forecast at 20.36 mln tons. Planted area could decline from 10.26 mln to 10.11 mln hectares. The current soybean harvest is nearly complete, with overall crop quality assessed as good and protein content above average. Meanwhile, the United States is nearing completion of another record harvest, while planting in Brazil is progressing faster than last year. China’s soybean consumption in 2026/27 is forecast at 113.96 mln tons, compared with 121.5 mln tons in 2025/26.

China also lowered its edible oil import estimate for 2025/26 by 700 thsd tons to 7.03 mln tons. The main reasons were high global palm oil prices, weak import margins and disruptions to sunflower oil shipments through the Black Sea. Palm oil imports for the season are estimated at 3 mln tons, rapeseed oil at 1.92 mln tons and soybean oil at 130 thsd tons. The total edible oil import forecast for 2026/27 remained unchanged at 7.7 mln tons, including 3.5 mln tons of palm oil. Domestic edible oil production is expected to reach 31.43 mln tons, compared with 32.45 mln tons in the previous season.

In the corn market, the Chinese ministry raised its estimate of industrial consumption in 2025/26 by 1 mln tons to 86 mln tons, reflecting stronger activity in the processing sector. The forecast for total corn consumption in 2026/27 was increased by 1.5 mln tons to 308.35 mln tons. Meanwhile, production and import estimates remained unchanged at 306 mln and 6 mln tons, respectively. Due to higher domestic use, the projected corn surplus was reduced from 5.14 mln to 3.64 mln tons.

In addition, China significantly raised its sugar production forecast for 2026/27 by 670 thsd tons to 13.6 mln tons, compared with 12.95 mln tons in the previous season. The increase is expected to come mainly from cane sugar production, with the forecast raised to 12.29 mln tons, while beet sugar output could decline to 1.31 mln tons. Total area planted with sugar crops is projected at 1.514 mln hectares. Sugar imports remained unchanged at 4.8 mln tons, while domestic consumption was revised upward to 15.9 mln tons.

Tags: China, soybean, imports