World’s largest cocoa producer forecasts 21–25% decline in harvest

Cocoa production in Ivory Coast could decline by 21–25% in the MY 2026/27 due to the impact of a powerful El Niño weather event. The forecast was issued by the national meteorological agency SODEXAM, which warned of a significant deterioration in weather conditions in the world’s leading cocoa-producing country. Ivory Coast harvested more than 2 mln tons of cocoa beans last season, meaning potential losses could amount to hundreds of thousands of tons and significantly affect global cocoa supplies.

According to meteorologists, the 2026–2027 El Niño event could become one of the strongest on record. Annual rainfall in Ivory Coast could decline by 10–27%, with a shorter rainy season and a longer dry period. The combination of moisture shortages and high temperatures threatens to cause premature cocoa pod drop, flower abortion and tree defoliation, directly affecting plantation yields.

Local farmers and exporters are already experiencing production difficulties. Market participants report that actual cocoa bean arrivals are significantly below initial forecasts. Export company representatives say that low delivery volumes are not the result of a delayed harvest but reflect an actual decline in production. Some traders even suggest that the forecast of a 25% production drop may prove too optimistic.

The situation on individual farms illustrates the scale of the problem. A cocoa farmer in the Duekoue area, who cultivates 6 hectares of plantations, reported selling just three 80-kg bags of cocoa by early November, compared with 14 bags during the same period last year. This represents a decline of almost 79% in sales volumes at his farm. The farmer had expected production to recover in November, but conditions have not improved so far.

Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming harvest has already affected the country’s export policy. In June, Ivory Coast temporarily suspended sales of export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop after concluding deals covering approximately 1.15 mln tons, pending clearer production estimates. Further deterioration in weather conditions could increase the risk of cocoa shortages in the global market and put additional upward pressure on international prices, particularly if the actual harvest decline approaches the upper end of the forecast.

Tags: weather conditions, Ivory Coast, cocoa