Ust-Luga overnight incident: Could Baltic grain exports face delays?

UkrAgroConsult

According to UkrAgroConsult, in the 2025/26 season, 326.2 thousand tonnes of grain were shipped through the LUGAPORT terminal in Ust-Luga (157.9 ths tons of wheat and 168.3 ths tons of barley).

In 2026/27, following the blockade of exports through Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, traders redirected shipments to Baltic Sea ports, primarily Ust-Luga and Vysotsk.

Two terminals at the port of Ust-Luga handle grain cargoes: LUGAPORT and ULTRAMAR. During the first four months of the 2026/27 season, these two terminals shipped 1.41 mln tons of wheat.

Damage to liquid hydrocarbon and chemical handling terminals during the night of 11 November 2026 does not directly affect grain handling facilities. However, it creates risks of logistical disruptions due to power supply and infrastructure constraints in the coming days:

• local authorities confirmed an emergency shutdown of a transformer substation, which could temporarily suspend equipment operations at nearby terminals;
• restrictions on access to port waters and pilotage services during firefighting and emergency response operations could delay grain bulk carriers berthing;
• rail congestion could develop. All cargoes bound for Ust-Luga pass through the major port railway hub at Luzhskaya station. The emergency at the port could delay the arrival of grain hopper wagons.

In October, 644 ths tons of wheat were exported through the port of Ust-Luga. Experts expect shipment volumes to increase in November.

However, the near term will show whether these forecasts materialise and which factor has the greatest impact on operations at the port of Ust-Luga:

• working days lost following the overnight attack on 11 November;
• autumn storms in the Baltic Sea;
• closure of navigation on the Volga–Baltic Waterway from 15 November, shifting all cargo flows to the already congested railway network.

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Tags: grain, barley, grain export, wheat, Baltic, Ust-Luga