WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS, April 4 – 11, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

• Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical rifts (e.g. US-EU trade tensions) could reshape trade flows, pricing, and competitiveness
• Geopolitics louder than weather – ahead of harvest, the biggest unknown is tariffs and trade war rhetoric. Markets frozen mid-April as traders await the next move
• Vegetable oils end last week in red – palm oil leads the decline. SFO premium still wide, but cracks are showing
• Weather remains a wildcard, especially for Eastern Europe and russia
• Currency strength, particularly in russia and Poland, could weigh on export further into 2025
• Winter and early spring crops are in ‘satisfactory’ condition. Market already pricing in a “good-enough” crop. However, is it really no room for surprises?
• Weather delays spring sowing – wet fields, slow machines. Soy and SFS pace trails last year. Risk of late planting builds in the Black Sea & Danube region
• Black Sea & Danube: Early 2025 harvest expected to pressure prices mid-May
• Grain prices fluctuations in Ukrainian ports – low supply keeps the market afloat, but for how long?
• Domestic oilseed prices firm – stable, but vulnerable. Processors sitting on stocks.
• Romanian early harvest could give it a competitive export advantage, especially amid tariff uncertainty
• Rapeseed hurt by April frost

Tags: grain, crop forecast, barley, Romania, price, soybean, Serbia, Russia, oilseeds, China, Black Sea region, sunflower oil, wheat, Bulgaria, sunseed, corn, rapeseed