MARS analysts raise grain yield forecast in the EU despite emerging drought risks

The MARS monitoring service has upgraded its forecast for key crop yields across the EU, citing generally favourable growing conditions across most member states. At the same time, experts warn that uneven rainfall patterns could still affect final outcomes.

The yield forecast for soft wheat has been revised upward to around 6.05 t/ha, reflecting improved seasonal conditions. Despite the increase, the figure remains below last year’s level but above the five-year average, indicating a relatively stable production outlook.

Overall crop conditions across Europe remain mostly positive. Winter crops are developing well, while spring sowing is progressing smoothly across most regions, supported by moderate temperatures and sufficient soil moisture in many agricultural zones.

However, central, northern and eastern parts of the continent continue to experience persistent rainfall deficits. While soil moisture is still adequate, analysts warn that water stress could intensify as crop water demand increases ahead of the flowering stage, making upcoming weather conditions critical.

In the barley segment, forecasts have also been revised slightly upward. Winter barley yields are now estimated at 5.23 t/ha, supported by generally good crop development, although still below last year’s performance. Spring barley is expected to exceed the five-year average, helped by adequate early-season soil moisture.

Rapeseed yields have also been slightly upgraded to 3.25 t/ha, reflecting stable crop conditions across most EU producing regions and limited frost damage. However, analysts stress that the final outcome will depend heavily on rainfall levels in the coming weeks, which will be crucial for maintaining yield potential.

Tags: corn, barley, EU, wheat, crop forecast