Brazil to seek new markets for soybeans due to US-China deal

A deal to increase China’s purchases of American agricultural products could push Brazil to tap other markets to offset the volume the United States will divert to China, industry experts said on Monday.

They said it was too early to assess the impact of the deal, announced by the White House on Sunday, on Brazil’s agricultural sector. At the same time, the country’s high competitiveness would allow it to expand its presence in other markets.

Brazil’s agricultural exports to China in 2025 reached $55.22 billion, about a third of the sector’s total foreign sales. Of that, $34.5 billion was soybeans, and another $9.82 billion was meat.

The White House estimates that China will buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans in addition. If these volumes materialize, Brazil will likely reorient its trade flows, brokerage Stag International said.

“China’s 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans will largely displace buyers outside China toward Brazil and other suppliers,” the company said in a report.

Stag estimates that Brazil remains structurally competitive and, with a record harvest of more than 180 million tons projected for 2026, will continue to meet a significant portion of demand outside China.

At the same time, Brazil could increase its beef exports to the U.S. if U.S. producers facing supply shortages shift more production to China.

“If the resumption of permits for U.S. businesses in China is confirmed, the U.S. could try to regain market share. At the same time, due to the lack of domestic production to meet domestic demand, there may be opportunities for other countries, including Brazil, to increase supplies to the United States,” said Abrafrigo CEO Paulo Mustafaga.

China also restored more than 400 expired licenses for American beef producers after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing.

However, the United States, like Brazil, is subject to quotas on beef exports to China, which limits potential sales growth in that market, Mustafaga added.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean, USA