Export prices for corn in Ukraine slightly decreased amid increased supply

In Ukraine, the weather is conducive to sowing and crop development, and precipitation forecast for the next 7 days across Ukraine will increase harvest potential, forcing farmers to accelerate sales of the old wheat and corn crop.

Increased demand for corn in ports from exporters still persists, but demand from Turkey is gradually being covered, so export prices for corn, after reaching the level of $230/t, decreased slightly and remained at the level of UAH 11,350-11,400/t or $226-228/t for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, although buyers still offer a better price for fast deliveries by road.

In the first 14 days of May, corn exports from Ukraine amounted to only 876 thousand tons (compared to 1.26 million tons last year), and in total in the 2025/26 season it reached 17.85 million tons (19.8 million tons last year).

In Ukraine, as of May 12, 2.4 million hectares or 55% of the planned area had been sown with corn, while as of May 16, 2025, 3.5 million hectares or 77% of the forecast had been sown. But over the past week, farmers have been able to accelerate sowing in anticipation of active precipitation this week.

Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade remain under pressure from speculation over hopes for increased sales to China and very favorable corn planting conditions in the US.

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of May 17, 76% of the planned area has been sown with corn in the US (76% a year ago), which is 6% higher than the 5-year average (70%).

Over the past week, July corn futures in Chicago rose by only 0.5% to $187.8/t (+3.7% month-on-month), although during the week they showed a speculative fall of 4.5% and a rise of 4.7% on information about agreements with China.

Corn exports from the United States decreased by 19% to 1.38 million tons during May 7-14, and in total for the season reached 58.57 million tons, which is 28.5% ahead of last year’s pace.

Oil prices are still high, and analysts predict that by the end of the year, prices for petroleum products and fertilizers will remain at maximum levels, which will increase the cost of agricultural products, which will continue to rise in price. Therefore, December corn futures in Chicago are trading $7/ton more expensive than July ones.

Favorable precipitation in southern Brazil, the US corn belt, and Ukraine in the coming week will restrain the growth of quotes.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices