USDA experts increased the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine

According to the USDA forecast, the global wheat harvest in 2023/24 MY will be 793.3 mln tonnes, down 3.3 mln tonnes from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are expected at 209.3 mln tonnes (-2.23 mln tonnes). Experts estimated the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world at 265.6 mln tonnes (-0.92 mln tonnes).

This is evidenced by the USDA report for August.

The USDA experts increased the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY to 21 mln tonnes (17.5 mln tonnes in the previous report). The ending stocks will increase from 1.59 mln tonnes to 4.13 mln tonnes.

“Despite the increase in production, Ukrainian exports remained at 10.5 mln tonnes due to the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the report says.

The estimate of wheat production in the U.S. in the new report decreased by 0.03 million tons to 47.2 million tons, exports are forecast at 19.05 million tons (-0.68 million tons). Ending stocks will increase to 16.75 million tons (+0.63 million tons).

Forecast for the main wheat exporters in 2023/24 MY (August figures compared to July):

USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2023/24 MY at 137 mln tonnes (-3 mln), the imports are unchanged at 12 mln tonnes. The ending stocks will amount to 134.92 mln tonnes (-2.21 mln tonnes).

Tags: Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, EU, Canada, USDA Report, wheat