U.S. wheat exports from June through August the highest since 2017
U.S. wheat exports have been one of the few bullish fundamentals for the commodity this marketing year, with the most recent WASDE increasing export forecasts to 900 million bushels (24.50 MMT), their highest estimate since June 2021.
The first quarter of the marketing year (June- August) has now wrapped up for wheat. From the 14/15 to 24/25 marketing year, an average of 5.68 MMT of wheat exports were shipped in the first quarter. At the end of this August wheat exports were 6.49 MMT, 807,955 MT above average.
While this is not a breakneck pace, it does show justification for the increased expectations on wheat exports. This is the highest amount of wheat shipped in quarter 1 since 2017-2018, and if USDA’s forecast is realized wheat exports for the marketing year will be the highest since 2020-2021.
Additionally, low U.S. wheat prices and a relatively weaker dollar are helping to boost exports. As of September 15, the International Grains Council data indicated that U.S. wheat is only $1 to $3 dollars more expensive per metric ton than other major producers Argentina and France. If these factors persist, wheat exports will continue to look bullish as they push to meet USDA’s increased expectations. Detailed data on wheat exports is available in the table below.
*25-26 is using WASDE forecast for the “total year” exports.
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