Houthis near control of key Red Sea Strait

On Thursday, Iran-linked Houthi forces took control of the port city of Mokha on the Red Sea coast, increasing the threat to shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Further advances by the group could allow it to attack civilian vessels and effectively block one of the key maritime routes between Asia and Europe.

According to the Yemeni government, the advance along the coast was carried out under the direct guidance of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Houthis have also moved toward the strategic Hanish Islands and taken additional positions near the strait. In response, Yemeni government forces and their allies are moving south toward Dubab, opposite Perim Island, seeking to prevent further Houthi advances.

The Houthi-controlled Yemeni Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said shipping in the Red Sea remains safe for all companies except Saudi vessels. Saudi Arabia has begun using the route more actively following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict with Iran. Before the disruptions, about one-fifth of global oil exports passed through the strait.

Against this backdrop, oil prices continued to rise on Friday. As of 03:45 GMT, Brent futures were up $0.81, or 0.8%, at $108.44 a barrel, while WTI gained $0.69, or 0.7%, to $103.17. Both benchmarks had risen by about 6% the previous day.

Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities have added to market concerns, signaling that the conflict is spreading beyond Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. According to ING, significant volumes of oil are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, although flows remain below pre-war levels. Simultaneous shipping risks in the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits could increase concerns over global oil supplies.

Further price movements will depend largely on demand conditions in China, the world’s largest crude oil importer. At the same time, continued shipping disruptions and new attacks could intensify supply concerns. IG analyst Tony Sycamore believes WTI could retest its early-March high of $119.48 a barrel.

Tags: prices, Yemen