Record beef prices persist amid herd decline – CoBank

Record-high beef prices are holding steady across the US cattle sector, driven by ongoing herd liquidation and a delayed rebuilding process, according to the latest CoBank Quarterly.

Despite volatility in cattle inventories, beef production has remained resilient, buoyed by robust consumer demand.

Through the third week of March, beef production edged slightly above 2024 levels. One key factor: heavier dressed cattle weights, which surged 3% to 6% higher year-over-year, reaching a record 882 pounds per head in late January. Still, feeder cattle prices continue climbing, putting the squeeze on packer margins.

Meanwhile, the pork sector is positioned for modest growth in 2025, which is helping to lift hog prices. With pork still an affordable alternative to increasingly expensive beef, rising exports and renewed domestic interest are supporting the sector.

Lean hog and cutout prices were up in early 2025, and signs suggest a potential uptick in the production cycle. Notably, pork producer margins have remained positive for 11 straight months through February.

The poultry sector is also showing strength, thanks to firm broiler prices and tight inventories. A 2.5% rise in chick placements year-to-date underpins a cautiously optimistic production outlook.

Breast meat prices have been climbing, and food service outlets are shifting more attention to chicken as beef prices soar, making chicken a value-driven option for consumers and a bright spot for broiler integrators.

The dairy sector, however, is grappling with uncertainty. Trade tensions with Mexico, Canada, and China—three nations that collectively account for half of US dairy exports—pose a significant risk. This unease has rattled markets, with April-to-June Class III milk futures falling by $2.57 per hundredweight since January.

Class IV futures have dropped even further, down $2.73. Still, lower feed costs offer a measure of relief in an otherwise challenging landscape.

Tags: Beef, chicken, cattle, broiler, demand, hog, inventories, pork, prices, Meat, US