Forecasts for the future grain harvest in Ukraine are divided

The expert community is currently divided in its assessments of the future harvest in Ukraine.

Pavlo Koval, the general director of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC), said this on the radio, the press service of the association reports.

“The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is giving cautious forecasts, expecting a certain decrease in the gross harvest and export potential of Ukraine. In contrast, reputable Ukrainian analytical sites assume a slightly different scenario. According to their estimates, due to good moisture reserves in a significant part of the regions, the gross harvest of the same corn may be even greater than last year,” he explained.

The expert emphasized that the current season is difficult. This year, even in the southern regions, sowing started 10–14 days later. Over time, the campaign began to gain momentum throughout the country, but was again suspended due to the cold, since the earth did not warm up to the required temperature at the required depth.

“Our colleagues from Sumy, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions managed to sow about 30% of the planned areas of corn and sunflower, after which they were forced to stop work for 4–5 days. This lag, on average, is 7–10 days, and it is likely to remain so. If we compare it with the indicators for the last four to five years, as of mid-May we usually had 85–90% of the sown areas under these crops, while this year the figure is about 55–60%. With favorable weather and sufficient rainfall, we expect to reach the finish line by the end of the month,” Pavlo Koval specified.

And he emphasized that the lag in sowing dates, in particular, corn, carries a systemic risk – shifting the harvest dates.

“If the autumn is again long and rainy, as it was last year, we will receive immature and wet grain. This will entail huge additional costs for harvesting and drying to marketable conditions. By the way, we can see the consequences of last year’s rainy autumn even now: there are many enterprises that only in May threshed corn that had overwintered in the field, and practically the next day prepared these areas for new sowing,” the UAC general director concluded.

Tags: corn, grain, wheat, crop forecast