Poland’s sugar production could fall by 17%

An expected decline in Poland’s sugar production in the 2026/27 season could reshape the European market after several years of surplus supply and low prices. According to updated estimates from the European Commission and industry sources, Polish sugar output may fall by around 16–17% year on year to 2.1–2.16 mln tons, already supporting firmer wholesale prices in Central Europe.

The forecast downgrade is mainly linked to an 8–9% reduction in the EU sugar beet area, along with the negative impact of early-season drought and disease pressure in key growing regions. Total sugar production in the European Union in 2026/27 is estimated at 14.1–14.2 mln tons, nearly 15% below the previous season.

Against the backdrop of weaker production forecasts, wholesale white sugar prices in Poland have already started to rise. In July, FCA offers increased to EUR 485–520/t, around 5–10% above early-month levels. Market participants say processors may reduce spot sales and prioritise long-term contracts with industrial users and retailers.

Lower production could also reshape regional trade flows. Poland, which has traditionally covered domestic demand and exported part of its sugar output to Central and Eastern European countries, may increase imports from Czechia, Germany and Lithuania.

Analysts believe the European market is gradually moving from surplus supply towards a more balanced situation. If weather conditions fail to improve and sugar beet yields remain below expectations, EU sugar prices could continue rising during the 2026/27 season, particularly in Central European markets.

Tags: Poland, sugar