Global durum wheat market faces shortage of high-quality grain

The global durum wheat market is facing a shortage of high-quality, high-protein grain despite generally adequate supplies. This was stated by Rossella Polito, an analyst at Black Silo Commodity Consulting and Fryer’s Reports, during the Grain Academy conference in Sofia.

According to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) October estimates, global durum wheat production in MY 2026/27 is expected to reach around 38.6 mln tons, slightly exceeding last year’s level. Production is set to exceed consumption for the third consecutive season, while ending stocks could rise to 10 mln tons. However, crop quality issues in several countries are limiting the availability of high-protein grain.

The most significant quality problems have been reported in parts of Southern Europe, Turkey and North Africa. In Greece, rainfall during harvesting reduced grain quality, while Italy recorded lower average protein levels despite an overall good crop. This has already affected prices: as of October 12, durum wheat with a protein content of at least 15% was priced at €338/ton in Foggia, compared with €279/ton for grain containing at least 11% protein. As a result, the premium for high-quality grain reached €59/ton, or approximately 21%.

In Canada, one of the world’s leading durum wheat producers, heavy rainfall in September delayed harvesting and raised concerns about crop quality. The preliminary production estimate stands at 6.4 mln tons, although the final figure could approach 7 mln tons. Meanwhile, EU durum wheat production in 2026 is estimated at 7.7 mln tons, down 11% year-on-year. Logistical restrictions on exports of high-quality grain from Kazakhstan are creating additional challenges.

According to Polito, the situation could become more complicated in 2027 due to the risk of further reductions in planted area. In Canada, durum wheat lost its traditional price premium over spring wheat for part of 2026, reducing farmers’ incentives to grow the crop. Similar problems are being observed in Europe, where producers consider current prices insufficient to offset rising costs. Further acreage reductions could tighten supplies in the next season.

Tags: Turkey, Canada, Greece, durum, grain quality, Italy, Kazakhstan