EU demand supports Ukraine’s rapeseed market despite near-term price pressure

Ukraine’s rapeseed market remains active due to stable demand from Europe. At the same time, domestic prices could come under pressure over the next two weeks amid a correction in European quotations, according to analysts at PUSK, an agricultural cooperative established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

Following disruptions at deep-sea ports, the EU has become the main destination for Ukrainian rapeseed exports, with most volumes shipped by rail. Analysts estimate that rail deliveries will account for around 60–70% of rapeseed exports in August-October. About 330 thsd tons have already been contracted for October.

Rapeseed futures on Euronext have started to decline, which could weigh on the Ukrainian market in the near term. Domestic indicative prices have already fallen by UAH 100–200/t at processing plants and by UAH 100–300/t for deliveries toward Danube ports. Demand at the western border remains at around €460–465/t, although shipments are constrained by a shortage of railcars available at acceptable rates.

PUSK views the current decline as a correction and expects the broader trend on the European market to remain upward. By December-January, Euronext quotations could potentially rise to €600–620/t and, under a favorable scenario, reach €640/t.

Ukraine’s rapeseed stocks as of October 1 are estimated at around 2.6–2.7 mln tons, with about 1.5 mln tons potentially remaining on the market by December-January. If European quotations strengthen, Ukrainian prices, previously at around €490–500/t in ports, could potentially rise to €510–520/t.

Tags: EU, prices, rapeseed, UAC, Ukraine