Argentina could increase beef exports to China

Argentina could increase beef exports to China as competition from Brazil and Australia temporarily weakens after both countries exhausted their tariff quotas. This could give Argentine suppliers a favorable export window over roughly the next two months.

Until July, Brazil accounted for about 58% of China’s beef imports, followed by Argentina with 15%, Australia with 12% and Uruguay with 5%. After the quotas were exhausted, Brazilian beef shipments dropped sharply, falling to 82.7 thsd tons in July and just 16.1 thsd tons in August.

At the same time, China is drawing down accumulated meat stocks. Beef imports totaled around 447 thsd tons in August, the lowest monthly volume since December 2025, while cold-storage inventories declined for a third consecutive month. This could support additional demand for supplies from Argentina and Uruguay.

Tighter external supply has already supported prices. FOB prices for selected Argentine beef cuts rose to $7,700/t from $7,200/t a month earlier and around $5,400/t a year ago. This represents an increase of more than 40% year-on-year.

However, the opportunity for Argentina to increase exports may be short-lived. Competition is expected to strengthen again around November-December as Brazilian and Australian suppliers prepare new shipments under next year’s quotas.

Tags: China, export, Brazil, Beef, Beef cattle, Argentina