El Niño may pose risks to global olive oil production

The powerful El Niño climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean could significantly affect olive oil production in the coming seasons. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% probability that a very strong El Niño will develop by the winter of 2026/27, increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall in many parts of the world.

Although the Mediterranean is far from the Pacific, scientists say El Niño can still indirectly influence the region’s climate, especially when combined with global warming. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) expects above-average temperatures across Europe from autumn, with the warming effect potentially intensifying in spring 2027. Climatologists also warn of a higher risk of severe heatwaves and large wildfires in Portugal and other Mediterranean olive-growing regions.

The impact of El Niño on olive production has already been demonstrated in recent years. In 2024, Peru experienced an unusually warm winter that deprived olive trees of the chilling hours needed for proper development, while heavy rainfall during flowering reduced fruit set. As a result, the country’s olive oil production fell by nearly 90% compared to the previous year.

Experts emphasize that El Niño does not guarantee the same impacts in every region, but it significantly increases the likelihood of weather extremes. For olive growers, this means greater production risks, while for the global market it could result in tighter supplies and renewed price volatility in the olive oil sector.

Tags: olive oil