Global wheat trade shifts as Black Sea disruptions reshape supply and demand

Global wheat trade in 2026/27 is undergoing a notable reshuffling as Black Sea shipping disruptions reduce export prospects for Ukraine and Russia, while demand among key importers is also changing significantly. In its August report, USDA cut Russia’s wheat export forecast by 1.5 mln tons to 46 mln tons and Ukraine’s by 1 mln tons to 13.5 mln tons, mainly due to disruptions affecting shipments through Black Sea ports.

Tighter Black Sea supply is already being reflected in global prices. Compared with July, EU wheat export quotes jumped by $25/t to $262/t, while U.S. prices rose by $26 to $321/t, Canadian prices by $20 to $292/t, Australian prices by $13 to $291/t and Argentine prices by $12 to $239/t. Russian wheat, by contrast, fell by $3/t to $224/t amid harvest pressure, growing supplies and export logistics constraints.

Lower Black Sea exports are creating additional opportunities for competing suppliers. USDA raised wheat export forecasts for both Canada and Kazakhstan by 1 mln tons, to 28.5 mln tons and 10 mln tons, respectively. This suggests that some of the volumes Ukraine and Russia may struggle to ship could be replaced by wheat from other major exporters.

Demand is also shifting significantly among major importers. The UK wheat import forecast was raised by 1.1 mln tons to 3.6 mln tons due to weaker domestic production prospects. Pakistan saw an even sharper revision, with expected imports jumping from just 10 thsd tons to 1 mln tons as high domestic prices prompted the government to signal renewed purchases. Afghanistan’s imports were raised by 200 thsd tons to 4.8 mln tons on stronger consumption.

Meanwhile, several major buyers are expected to reduce purchases. Egypt’s wheat import forecast was cut by 0.5 mln tons to 13 mln tons due to a large domestic crop and higher beginning stocks, while Turkey’s was lowered by the same amount to 5 mln tons on strong domestic production. Bangladesh’s forecast was cut by 0.7 mln tons to 7 mln tons and Vietnam’s by 0.3 mln tons to 6.2 mln tons due to weaker feed demand.