Over recent decades, climate conditions in northern and central Ukraine have changed significantly, approaching the heat levels typical of southern regions 40–50 years ago. This was stated by Yurii Kiryak, Director of Kherson Regional Hydrometeorological Center, during the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV – 2026.
Rising temperatures and moisture deficit
Meteorological data show that since 2004, the sum of effective temperatures in central regions has increased by 48%. This has provided the agricultural sector with nearly double the thermal energy needed for crop production. However, this warming has not been accompanied by increased moisture, creating significant risks for crop yields.
The main challenge remains the uneven distribution of rainfall: instead of steady moderate precipitation, short but intense downpours are becoming more frequent, preventing soils from retaining sufficient moisture. For example, in 2010, nearly a quarter of Kherson’s annual rainfall (157 mm out of 686 mm) fell within just three days.
New climate realities: opportunities and risks
Despite the warming trend, experts caution against overly optimistic expectations regarding the cultivation of tropical crops. Winter minimum temperatures in southern Ukraine can still drop to critical levels, making crops such as bananas and citrus unsuitable for open-field production.
Climate projections through 2050 indicate that effective temperatures have risen by 48% since 2004, providing farmers with an additional 1,000 degree-units of heat. At the same time, the area of arid land without irrigation could expand by a further 30%.
Water management and irrigation as key solutions
Experts emphasize that developing modern water storage systems and restoring irrigation are essential for adapting agriculture to new climate conditions. Without the ability to retain moisture from intense rainfall events, the extent of drought-prone areas will continue to grow.
“Nature is giving us nearly 1,000 additional degree-units of energy for free. The only thing we need to do is ensure sufficient moisture,” said Yurii Kiryak.
Addressing the moisture deficit will require large-scale government programs aimed at restoring irrigation systems and implementing modern soil moisture conservation technologies.
