Global grain production could decline for first time in 4 years — IGC

Global grain production in the MY 2026/27 could decline for the first time in four years due to a reduction in harvested area and lower average yields, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest Grain Market Report on May 21.

The organization forecasts that wheat production will fall by 3% year-on-year to 820 million tonnes and maize production will fall by 2% to 1.3 billion tonnes compared to the previous season. Despite this, consumption of wheat, maize and barley will continue to grow.

“Due to increased consumption of wheat, maize and barley, total cereal utilization is expected to increase slightly. Ending stocks could decline by 4%, but at 615 million tonnes they will be in line with the average of the past five years,” the IGC said.

Global grain trade is forecast to decline by 2%, mainly due to reduced imports by North African and Middle Eastern countries.

Meanwhile, the IGC has raised its soybean production forecast for the 2026-27 season to a record 442 million tonnes from its April estimate, up 3% year-on-year on expectations of larger harvests in key producing countries. Soybean consumption could also hit a new high of 445 million tonnes on robust demand from the processing industry, while aggregate stocks are expected to gradually decline.

Amid expectations of reduced production, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) rose 2.6% in May from the previous month, with wheat the biggest gainer, up 4.2%.

In annual terms, the index grew by almost 8%, with the largest increases recorded for soybeans (+12%) and barley (+9%).

Tags: soybean, wheat, crop forecast, corn, grain, barley