China tariffs cut US agricultural exports by nearly $15 bln

The trade dispute between the United States and China has resulted in significant losses for American agricultural exports. According to economists at North Dakota State University, China’s retaliatory tariffs reduced U.S. agricultural exports by an annualized $14.9 billion between March 2025 and February 2026.

The study found that soybeans suffered the largest losses, with exports declining by $6.8 billion, accounting for nearly half of the total reduction. Beef and cotton exports each lost around $1.3 billion, while tree nuts recorded losses of $964 million and corn exports fell by approximately $333 million.

Despite recent announcements of new trade agreements between Washington and Beijing, markets remain cautious. Following reports of major export deals, November soybean futures dropped about 44 cents per bushel, while cattle futures also moved lower. Market participants continue to demand concrete contracts and implementation details rather than broad political statements.

According to the researchers, the current export losses are about 41% larger than those recorded during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade dispute. Agricultural states such as California and Illinois were among the hardest hit, each losing an estimated $1.2 billion in export value.

Analysts note that tariff measures can rapidly reshape global trade flows and commodity demand. Even if trade barriers are eased, rebuilding export volumes may take time, as international buyers seek clear guarantees and stable trading conditions before returning to normal purchasing levels.