Canada’s 2026/27 canola ending stock forecast has been revised upwards

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its May Supply and Demand Report. The forecast for canola ending stocks for the MY 2026/27 was revised upward, from 1.064 million tonnes forecast last month to 1.319 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for canola ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year was lowered by 45,000 tonnes to 2.72 million tonnes.

In the May report, the AAFC raised the forecast for canola stocks at the end of 2026/27 by 255,000 tonnes, indicating ample canola supplies. Consequently, cost support for canola meal, a byproduct of canola processing, has weakened. On May 22, 2026, the closing price of the benchmark rapeseed meal futures contract for September 2026 delivery (2609) was RMB 2,337 per tonne, down RMB 14 per tonne from the previous trading day; short-term prices remain under pressure, indicating a bearish outlook.

As the AAFC raises its rapeseed inventory forecast for the end of 2026/27, expectations for ample rapeseed supply remain. For rapeseed oil, the main product of rapeseed processing, cost support has weakened. With supply and demand expectations tilting toward a weakening market balance, both spot and futures prices are under downward pressure, indicating a bearish market sentiment.

Rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange recovered on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s losses. The sharp rise in crude oil prices also impacted vegetable oils, with canola supported by additional gains in Chicago soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil. Lower Chicago soybean and soymeal prices attempted to curb the rise in Canadian oilseed prices. Well-above-normal temperatures continued to spread across the Prairies, giving farmers an opportunity to make up for lost time in the delayed spring planting. July canola futures rose slightly above their 20-day moving average, outpacing major technical levels. The Canadian dollar fell Tuesday afternoon to 72.38 cents, compared to Monday’s close of 72.44. Trading in the US markets resumed after the Memorial Day break, leading to increased activity in the canola market. On Tuesday, 46,855 canola contracts were traded, up from 25,336 on Monday. Rotation trades accounted for 26,838 contracts.

Prices are quoted in Canadian dollars per metric ton:

July 750.70 (up 14.50),

November 760.30 (up 13.70),

January 768.10 (up 13.10),

March 773.90 (up 13.00).

Tags: Canada, rapeseed, stocks