Bread prices in Ukraine could rise another 10% by year-end

Bread prices in Ukraine could increase by another 10% by the end of 2026, according to Denys Marchuk, head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council. He noted that over the past two years, bread prices have been rising by an average of 1.5–2% per month.

Grain and flour account for only around 25–35% of the cost of bread production. A significant share of producers’ expenses comes from energy, logistics, wages, packaging and other costs, meaning that lower domestic wheat prices do not necessarily translate into cheaper bread.

Rising labor costs remain another factor pushing prices higher. According to Marchuk, wages at bakeries exceed UAH 26,000 as producers have to compete for workers and increase salaries. Exchange rate fluctuations also affect costs because producers rely on imported equipment.

Logistics costs are also putting pressure on production expenses. Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure have forced companies to change delivery routes. At the same time, Ukrainian farmgate prices for grains and oilseeds have fallen by 30–40% amid disruptions to seaborne exports.

In the longer term, low grain prices could affect wheat production. Farmers warn that current economics have made wheat production unprofitable for some farms, potentially encouraging a reduction in planted area. However, existing stocks and production volumes currently do not indicate a shortage of wheat on the domestic market.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, Bread