Dragon Capital forecasts reopening of Black Sea grain corridor in 2027

Investment company Dragon Capital forecasts that Ukraine could resume grain exports through its Black Sea ports in 2027 following a diplomatic agreement similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which operated in 2022–2023. This is stated in the company’s updated macroeconomic forecast published on October 8.

According to analysts, intensified Russian attacks since July 2026 have brought cargo shipments through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to a near standstill, significantly restricting exports of grain and other commodities. Dragon Capital estimates that the port blockade could reduce Ukraine’s real GDP by 2.2%. This assessment already accounts for the partial redirection of agricultural exports to alternative routes, including Danube ports.

However, restoring seaborne grain exports before the start of the spring planting campaign in 2027 could substantially reduce economic losses. Under this scenario, the negative impact of the blockade would decline by 1.5 percentage points to 0.7% of GDP. Analysts believe this could be achieved through a separate international agreement ensuring the safe transportation of grain cargoes.

Dragon Capital suggests that a new grain export agreement could be reached as early as next year. At the same time, the company considers broader arrangements covering not only maritime trade but also energy infrastructure unlikely. As a result, restoring grain exports could become a separate focus of diplomatic negotiations without requiring a comprehensive ceasefire.

Due to the port blockade and reduced exports of grain, steel and iron ore, Dragon Capital forecasts a record Ukrainian foreign trade deficit of $71 billion in 2026, equivalent to 31% of GDP. The company has also downgraded its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.5% growth to a 0.5% contraction. Analysts expect real GDP to decline by a further 1% in 2027.

Tags: Ukraine, export, grain, Black Sea grain corridor