USDA raises US corn production forecast

In its October WASDE report, USDA raised its forecast for US corn production in MY 2026/27 by 5.95 mln tons, from 401.33 mln to 407.28 mln tons. The revision reflects a higher yield forecast of 181.2 bushels per acre, while harvested area remained unchanged at 88.5 mln acres.

The US corn export forecast was raised from 83.19 mln to 83.82 mln tons, although the increase in supply far exceeds the rise in use. As a result, US ending stocks were raised by 7.18 mln tons to 46.97 mln tons. The season-average farm price was lowered by $0.10 to $4.70 per bushel.

Against this backdrop, USDA raised its forecast for global corn production from 1.291 bln to 1.294 bln tons, while global ending stocks were increased from 272.1 mln to 280.44 mln tons. World exports are forecast at 210.72 mln tons compared with 210.08 mln tons a month earlier.

For Ukraine, USDA left its corn production forecast unchanged at 31.8 mln tons and exports at 22 mln tons. Ending stocks were slightly raised from 5.46 mln to 5.53 mln tons. In MY 2025/26, Ukraine’s corn production is estimated at 30.9 mln tons and exports at 22.24 mln tons.

Forecasts for two other major exporters also remained stable. USDA expects Brazil’s corn production at 139 mln tons and exports at 43 mln tons, while Argentina’s crop is forecast at 55 mln tons with exports at 38 mln tons. China’s production forecast was unchanged at 307 mln tons, with imports at 5 mln tons.

Meanwhile, the EU corn production forecast was cut by 2.6 mln tons, from 50.6 mln to 48 mln tons, while imports were left unchanged at 23.5 mln tons. USDA linked the weaker outlook to harvest results and updated official estimates, including France, where production is expected to be 38% lower than a year earlier. Egypt’s import forecast was raised from 13.2 mln to 13.5 mln tons.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, USDA Report, USA, global market