Global palm oil stocks to fall to lowest level since 2017/18 — USDA

Global palm oil stocks in MY 2026/27 are expected to fall to their lowest level since the 2017/18 season. USDA also expects global palm oil production to be 2.5 mln tons lower than in the previous season.

The main downward revision comes from Indonesia. USDA cut the country’s palm oil production forecast by 2.2 mln tons, from 47.2 mln to 45 mln tons. The revision reflects dry weather in recent months, which has weakened crop prospects.

Against the backdrop of tighter supplies, Indonesia’s palm oil export forecast was reduced from 23.5 mln to 21.6 mln tons. Malaysia is expected to partly offset the decline, with production forecast at 19.6 mln tons and exports raised from 15.9 mln to 16.2 mln tons.

Lower supplies have also affected forecasts for major importers. India’s palm oil imports were cut from 8.7 mln to 8.4 mln tons, China’s from 3.9 mln to 3.7 mln tons, and Pakistan’s from 3.7 mln to 3.5 mln tons. Imports are also forecast at 1.4 mln tons for Bangladesh and 0.94 mln tons for Vietnam.

Overall, USDA lowered its forecast for global palm oil exports in MY 2026/27 from 45.26 mln to 43.75 mln tons. Lower production in Indonesia is also the main factor behind the weaker global vegetable oil balance, with total production now forecast at 243.16 mln tons compared with 245.36 mln tons previously.

Tags: USDA, Indonesia, USDA Report, Malaysia, palm oil