USDA leaves Ukraine wheat export forecast unchanged

In its October WASDE report released on October 9, 2026, USDA left its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in MY 2026/27 unchanged at 26 mln tons. The export forecast was also maintained at 12.5 mln tons, while ending stocks remained at 6.1 mln tons. For comparison, in MY 2025/26 production is estimated at 24.1 mln tons, exports at 14.1 mln tons, and ending stocks at only 2 mln tons.

Global wheat production in MY 2026/27 is forecast at 822.39 mln tons, virtually unchanged from 822.43 mln tons in September. At the same time, the global trade forecast was cut by 2.8 mln tons, from 211.77 mln to 208.97 mln tons. Global consumption was raised by 1.2 mln tons to 827.9 mln tons, while ending stocks were slightly reduced from 276.29 mln to 276.04 mln tons.

For the EU, USDA cut its wheat production forecast by 0.8 mln tons to 133 mln tons, mainly due to a lower estimate for Germany. Domestic consumption in the EU was raised by 1 mln tons to 115.75 mln tons, pushing the ending stocks forecast down from 13.52 mln to 11.72 mln tons. The export forecast was unchanged at 31 mln tons.

For Canada, USDA raised its production forecast by 0.5 mln tons to 36.5 mln tons and exports by the same amount to 30.5 mln tons. Argentina’s crop forecast was unchanged at 21.5 mln tons, while exports were raised by 0.5 mln tons to 16 mln tons. For Australia, production and exports were unchanged at 31 mln and 23.5 mln tons respectively, while ending stocks were increased to 4.94 mln tons.

For Russia, USDA kept its wheat production forecast unchanged at 88 mln tons but cut exports by 3 mln tons to 40 mln tons, the lowest level in five years. The revision reflects logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region and weaker shipment pace. At the same time, ending stocks were raised by 3 mln tons to 19.09 mln tons.

For the United States, the production forecast was raised from 41.66 mln to 41.74 mln tons, although this would still be the smallest US wheat crop since 1970. Exports were reduced from 21.09 mln to 20.41 mln tons, while ending stocks were increased from 19.51 mln to 20.14 mln tons. For China, the production forecast was unchanged at 141 mln tons and imports at 6 mln tons, while ending stocks were cut from 120.2 mln to 119.2 mln tons due to higher domestic consumption.

Tags: Ukraine, export, grain, grain export, USDA Report, wheat, global market