Black Sea disruptions raise risk of high-protein wheat shortages

Disruptions to wheat exports from the Black Sea region are increasingly affecting not only trade volumes but also the quality mix of available grain. Analysts warn that alternative origins may not fully replace the high-protein wheat traditionally supplied from the region.

A key issue is reduced access to Russian wheat with around 12.5% protein. Even if Australia, Argentina and other exporters provide enough replacement tonnage, a larger share of alternative supplies may be closer to 11.5% protein, creating a potential shortage of suitable milling wheat.

The EU also has limited capacity to replace Black Sea supplies. EU wheat production in the MY 2026/27 is forecast at 133.2 mln tons, down from 143.4 mln tons a year earlier. France has a relatively good quality profile but a smaller crop, while Romania and Bulgaria have a higher-than-usual share of lower-quality wheat.

In Ukraine, around 60% of the wheat crop is expected to be milling quality, with protein levels typically around 11.5%. At the same time, logistics remain constrained, while some transport capacity is being redirected toward oilseeds, which generate higher revenue per unit of transport capacity.

High fertilizer prices add another risk for future seasons. Producing wheat with higher protein content generally requires more nitrogen, so weak milling premiums and expensive fertilizers could push farmers to reduce input use, potentially lowering crop quality in the coming years.

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Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, export, EU