Barley prices in Ukraine are falling due to weak export demand and large stocks

At the end of the season, the barley market in Ukraine remains under pressure from low export demand, significant carryover stocks, and subdued buyer interest in the new crop. Barley is the one that shows the largest price decline among the major grain crops.

One of the key factors in the decline in demand was the complexity of logistics due to shipping restrictions in the Persian Gulf region. Traditional buyers of Ukrainian barley in the Middle East significantly reduced purchases, which led to a decrease in export prices in recent months from $220-222/t to $200/t or about UAH 10,200/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Additional pressure on the market is created by significant crop stocks. As of May 1, barley stocks in Ukraine were estimated at 589.2 thousand tons, which is 66.5% higher than the same period last year.

Prices are also negatively affected by favorable harvest prospects in the Middle East and North Africa, which are traditionally large importers of barley. Expectations of increased domestic production are reducing these countries’ need to purchase from external markets.

The asking price for new crop barley in Ukraine has already dropped to $198–200/t delivered to ports. For individual batches delivered to China, traders are offering an additional premium of $2/t. For comparison, a year ago, purchase prices for the new crop were at $190–193/t CPT-port.

Favorable weather conditions and sufficient rainfall create a good harvest potential for both winter and spring barley in Ukraine, especially in the southern and eastern regions. This creates the prerequisites for active sales of the first batches of the new crop immediately after the start of the harvest, which may maintain price pressure on the market.

Global demand also remains subdued. For example, on June 11, Jordan’s state grain operator MIT purchased only about 60,000 tons of feed barley from Olam in an international tender at a price of $252/ton C&F for delivery in the first half of September. This is $3.75/ton cheaper than in the previous tender on June 3.

Other tenderers offered grain at higher prices: Ameropa — $259.95/t C&F, Bunge — $264/t C&F, Viterra — $271/t C&F, Solaris — $264.14/t C&F, CHS — $255.68/t C&F and COFCO — $257.5/t C&F.

In the MY 2026/27 season, the global barley balance remains relatively stable compared to the previous year. At the same time, the structure of competition between the main exporters is changing. The countries of the Black Sea-Danube region, primarily Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria, continue to strengthen their positions on the world market.

The forecast for barley production in the Russian Federation has been reduced to 18–18.5 million tons compared to 19.5 million tons last season due to a delay in the sowing campaign. However, weather conditions there remain favorable for the development of crops, which limits the risks of a significant reduction in the harvest.

The malting barley market is also experiencing a decline in demand. High raw material stocks at processors and weak demand for malt have led to a decrease in purchase prices from seasonal highs of 11,400–11,500 UAH/t to 10,800–11,100 UAH/t delivered to the mill.

Global beer consumption continues to decline, so malt producers plan to start purchasing the new crop very cautiously. A significant part of the enterprises have sufficient grain reserves and will continue to process the old crop at least until August. As a result, the premium for malting barley in the new season is likely to remain small compared to feed grain.

Tags: Ukraine, barley, prices