Demand for barley in Ukraine is practically non-existent

Since July 22, ships have practically stopped entering Ukrainian ports for loading, while the Russian Federation continues to attack the Odesa region with drones and missiles, destroying port infrastructure and civilian facilities, which has stopped the operation of grain terminals and the trading activity of traders.

Over the past week, 5 ships have been officially confirmed to have been hit, although more than 10 ships were attacked in total, but some were able to continue to leave Ukraine after being hit by drones.

The prices of barley, which was already being purchased by only a few traders, were the most affected by the halt in purchases. Demand prices for feed barley fell by another UAH 1,000/t to UAH 6,700-7,000/t or $130-140/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

After the damage to a ship that was leaving the Black Sea from Danube ports, the purchase prices for feed barley there also dropped to 7,500-8,000 UAH/t with delivery to Danube ports.

It should be noted that international traders have not yet been able to organize the purchase of Ukrainian barley with delivery by railcars or trucks to the Romanian port of Constanta.

The demand prices for barley with delivery to the Romanian border are $125/t DAP Vadul Siret, and with delivery to the western border – $130/t DAP Mostyska.

At domestic elevators, prices fell to the levels of 6,000-6,500 UAH/t EXW, but the number of traders buying barley at elevators decreased sharply due to the lack of clarity regarding further export logistics from Ukraine.

At the same time, Russia continues to export its grain through the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Taman, so prices on world exchanges have decreased somewhat, which has lowered prices for Russian grain by $6-8/t FOB.

Malt mills in Ukraine have not yet started purchasing new harvest malting barley, as they are still provided with sufficient stocks of the old harvest until the end of August and are expecting prices for feed barley to stabilize.

According to Agritel, physical prices for French feed barley fell by 8.9% last week to €203/t or $234/t FOB Rouen, and for spring malting barley by 4.2% to €238/t FOB Cray, completely losing the increase of the week before last.

The expected escalation of Ukrainian strikes on Russian port infrastructure in the Black Sea could lead to a further increase in world prices and force the terrorist Russian state, under pressure from international partners (including China), to begin negotiations to end airstrikes on civilian cities, ports, and ships, but this is an overly optimistic scenario.

Tags: Ukraine, export, barley