Global beef production to decline by more than 3% for the first time in five years

Global beef production could decline by more than 3% in 2026 to 60.223 mln tons, marking the first decrease after five consecutive years of growth. According to updated forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global output is expected to fall by almost 2 mln tons compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, production is projected to stabilize at around 60 mln tons in 2027. These estimates were presented in the USDA’s semiannual report, “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade.”

Despite lower production, international beef trade remains relatively stable. According to USDA estimates, global exports are expected to total around 13.9 mln tons in 2026, while imports will increase by 456 thsd tons to a record 12.4 mln tons. Meanwhile, global beef consumption could decline by more than 1.7 mln tons compared with 2025, when it reached a peak of 60.35 mln tons. These trends indicate changes in the global balance of meat production, consumption and international trade.

In 2027, beef production is expected to increase in Argentina, India and Uruguay. Argentina, in particular, could expand output by 90 thsd tons. Meanwhile, production declines are forecast in the United States, Brazil, Australia and the European Union. Brazil is expected to remain one of the main contributors to the reduction in global supply, with its beef production projected to fall by 200 thsd tons, from 12.15 mln tons in 2026 to 11.95 mln tons in 2027.

Brazil is also facing stronger competition and trade restrictions in key export markets. The USDA forecasts Brazilian beef exports to decline from 4.15 mln tons in 2026 to 4.1 mln tons in 2027. Additional challenges include tariff-rate quotas, veterinary requirements and market access restrictions, particularly in China and the EU. Under these conditions, Brazilian exporters may intensify efforts to find buyers in South Asia, the Middle East and South America, potentially increasing competition with other suppliers.

Brazil’s influence on global beef trade remains substantial. Between 2021 and 2025, the country’s beef production increased from 9.75 mln tons to more than 12.6 mln tons, while exports reached a record 4.38 mln tons in 2025. During this period, Brazil accounted for nearly 80% of the growth in international beef trade, and its share of global exports increased from approximately 20% to more than 30%. Against the backdrop of expected stabilization in global production, further market developments will largely depend on Brazil’s ability to maintain its export position, redirect shipments and compete on price in alternative markets.

Tags: Beef, Beef cattle, beef production, global market