Australia raises crop forecast for major crops

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised the forecast of winter wheat production in the country by about 100 thousand tons to 25.5 million tons, but noted that it would still be 37% less than last year.

As noted, the reduction of the grain harvest will be due to the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which this year brought some of the driest and hottest conditions in the history of observations.

Experts also predict in their quarterly report that barley and canola production in Australia will be higher than expected three months ago, but still lower than last year.

Thus, barley production may decline by 24% per year, to 10.8 million tons, which is 4% below the 10-year average. Although three months ago, the grain harvest in Australia was expected to reach 0.5 million tons.

Production of canola may decline by 33% per year, to 5.5 million tons, but will remain significantly higher than the 10-year average. At the same time, in September, analysts predicted a harvest of 5.2 million tons.

As for summer crops, ABARES forecasts a 45% decline in sorghum production to 1.5 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY, while rice production may increase by 35% to 700 thsd tonnes.

Tags: wheat, rapeseed, sorghum, Australia, barley