2023 U.S. Prospective Plantings

In their 2023 U.S. Prospective Plantings report released last Friday, the USDA estimated that farmers in the U.S. would plant 92 million acres of corn and 87.5 million acres of soybeans. The corn acreage represents an increase of 3.4 million acres compared to the 88.5 million planted last year and about 1.1 million more than the average pre-report trade estimate. The soybean acreage represents an increase of 55,000 acres compared to the 87.4 million planted last year and 730,000 less than the average pre-report trade estimate.

Corn – Corn acreage in 2023 is expected to increase 150,000 acres or more in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Corn acreage in North Dakota is expected to increase 800,000 acres.

Given the current weather across the Midwest, USDA’s estimate of 92 million corn acres may end up being the highest of the season. The cold and snowy conditions in the northwestern Corn Belt could delay the corn planting enough for farmers to switch some of their corn acres to soybeans and in a worst-case scenario, opt for prevent plant for some of the corn acres.

The state most at risk is probably North Dakota where the USDA indicated that farmers would plant 3.75 million acres of corn. There is a deep snow pack in North Dakota and more snow in the forecast for this week and a high probability of flooding along the Red River in eastern North Dakota.

There could also be problems in South Dakota where farmers are expected to plant 5.9 million acres of corn and Minnesota with 8.35 million acres of corn. More snow is in the forecast for both South Dakota and Minnesota. The weather in the northwestern Corn Belt is more like January than April and the snowstorm forecasted for this week might end up being one of the worst of the winter.

It is too early to predict prevent plant acreage in the northwestern Corn Belt, but the risk of a significant amount of prevent plant is increasing. The prevent plant date for corn in that region is either May 25th or May 31st depending on location. At this point, it is impossible to say how many corn acres may not be planted to corn, but the combination of switching and prevent plant is expected to trim the corn acreage. Therefore, the estimate of 92 million acres of corn will probably get smaller.

Soybeans – The 2023 soybean acreage is up slightly compared to last year. Soybean acreage is expected to increase by 100,000 acres or more in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Soybean acreage is expected to decline by 100,000 or more in Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri.

USDA’s estimate of 87.5 million acres of soybeans could end up being the lowest of the season, but that is uncertain at this point. There will probably be some corn acreage switched to soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt, but there could also be some soybean acreage lost to prevent plant, but we won’t know until late May or early June. The prevent plant date for soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt is June 10th.

Tags: soybeans, acreage, U.S., corn, USDA, planting, estimate