USDA report on the status of wheat crops in the United States led to a decrease in stock market quotations

According to data from the USDA’s first report of the year on the condition of crops in the USA, as of March 31, 56% of winter wheat crops were in good or excellent condition (28% last year), and 11% (36%) of crops were in poor or very poor condition. 1% of the area has already been sown with spring wheat, which corresponds to the average 5-year sowing rate.

According to forecasts, the area of wheat sowing in the US will decrease compared to the previous season from 49.575 to 47.498 million acres, in particular under winter wheat – by 7.5% to 34.135 million acres.

On Monday, the MATIF exchange was closed, and electronic trading was held in the United States, and against the background of a good state of crops, May futures fell in price:

• by 0.6% to $204.7/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.7% to $211.5/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1.6% to $233.2/t – for HRS durum spring wheat in Minneapolis.

As of March 28, wheat exports from the USA amounted to 14.78 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than last year’s pace. In the two months remaining before the end of the season, it is unlikely that USDA’s projected 19.3 million tons will be reached.

The EU Commission predicts that due to a reduction in the area of soft wheat sowing compared to last year from 21.75 to 20.95 million hectares, the harvest will decrease by 4% to 120.8 million tons, which will be the lowest indicator since 2020/21 MY.

The State Food Safety Authority of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) on March 29 purchased at an international tender 795,000 tons of flour wheat of random origin with a protein content of 12.5% for delivery in June – July to the ports of Jeddah, Yanbu, Dammam and Jizan at an average price of 256.4 $/t, which is in line with the purchase price at the last tender in Egypt, which will increase the pressure on export prices in the near future.

Dry weather in the Black Sea region of Ukraine and the Russian Federation may support quotations, although winter wheat crops are currently in fairly good condition.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA, crop condition