USDA points to record US soybean crop in 2023/24

The May report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which was released last Friday (12), focused the market’s attention and brought important impacts on Chicago. The report was highly expected, as traditionally in May USDA brings the first supply and demand figures related to the new season, which in this case is the 2023/24 season. The Department confirmed the market sentiment that pointed to a possible record crop in the United States and a strong recovery in stocks, although the numbers were above expectations.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to hit 4.510 bln bushels in 2023/24, equivalent to 122.74 mln tons. Yield was estimated at 52 bushels per acre. The number was above the market forecast, which was 4.383 bln bushels, or 119.28 mln tons.

Ending stocks are projected at 335 mln bushels or 9.12 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 282 mln or 7.67 mln tons. USDA indicated the crushing at 2.310 bln bushels (62.87 mln tons) and exports at 1.975 bln (53.75 mln tons).

For the 2022/23 season, USDA maintained its production estimate at 4.276 bln bushels or 116.37 mln tons. Ending stocks were estimated at 215 bln bushels – 5.85 mln tons. The market projected stocks of 212 bln or 5.77 mln.

Regarding the global picture, USDA projected the world soybean crop in 2023/24 at 410.6 mln tons. Closing stocks are estimated at 122.5 mln tons, well above the market expectations of 105.8 mln tons.

USDA projects the US crop at 122.74 mln tons, as already mentioned. The Brazilian crop was projected at 163 mln tons. For Argentina, the forecast is for production of 48 mln tons. China is expected to import 100 mln tons.

For the 2022/23 season, USDA estimated a global crop of 370.42 mln tons. The United States production is estimated at 116.38 mln tons. Brazil’s crop was projected at 155 mln, and Argentina’s at 27 mln tons. The market was betting on 154.6 mln for Brazil and 24.4 mln for Argentina.

Global stocks are estimated at 101.4 mln tons, while the market was betting on 99.4 mln tons.

Tags: Market, USDA, Argentina, Brazil, estimate, soybean, US, ending stocks, Production, crop, forecast, yield