Prices for Black Sea wheat are currently the lowest on the world market

Against the backdrop of accelerated wheat harvest in Ukraine and high yield rates in the south, farmers are increasing sales, which is increasing pressure on purchase prices, which are already falling due to lower export prices.

This week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine decreased by another 200-250 UAH/t to 10,400-10,600 UAH/t or $206-210/t for food wheat and to 9,800-9,900 UAH/t or $194-198/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

The hot weather of recent days has sharply dried out crops, halting the growing season, and accelerated wheat harvesting in all regions, however, prolonged precipitation forecast for the next 5-7 days will delay harvesting and may lead to a deterioration in grain quality.

This season, we again expect an increase in the share of feed wheat due to damage to part of the grain by fungi, as well as an increase in the premium for food wheat compared to feed wheat.

Ukrainian food wheat (with 11.5-12.5% protein) of the new harvest with delivery in July-August is offered at $227-231/t FOB Black Sea ports, but sellers of Russian wheat are actively reducing prices, which is intensifying competition. Currently, Russian wheat is the cheapest on the world market, so against the background of the rise in price of American wheat, demand for Black Sea wheat will continue to grow.

According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for Russian food wheat (12.5% protein) of the new harvest fell by $5-7/t to $226-228/t FOB Black Sea ports during the week due to increased supply from export-oriented southern regions, where the winter wheat harvest this season will increase from 31 to 37 million tons. At the same time, the total wheat harvest in the Russian Federation is expected to decrease compared to last year from 91 to 88 million tons due to a reduction in spring wheat production.

In June, Russia exported 2.5 million tons of wheat, which is 1.8 times higher than in June 2025. And in total, in the 2025/26 MY, exports reached 47.5 million tons, which is 4.9% more than in the 2024/25 MY (45.3 million tons).

September futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago are trading at $212.5/t (5% lower than a year ago) and may rise further against the backdrop of heavy rainfall-induced harvest delays and a 12 million-tonne reduction in the US harvest compared to the previous season.

September soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris are trading at €202/t or $230/t, down 9.4% from last year, despite forecasts of a smaller harvest in the EU.

Saudi Arabia announced a tender for the purchase of 655 thousand tons of wheat for delivery in August-September, so the market is awaiting the results of the tender and increased demand.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, Black Sea region, wheat