Danube cannot replace Greater Odesa ports as traders cite key constraints

Following shipowners’ growing reluctance to call at the ports of Greater Odesa, grain traders are increasingly evaluating the rerouting of cargo through the Danube. However, low water levels, draft restrictions, additional inspections and continued security risks mean the Danube corridor cannot fully replace Ukraine’s deep-water export terminals.

According to Mykola Horbachov, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the Danube route can handle up to 2.5 mln tons of cargo per month under current infrastructure. This includes grain, vegetable oils, meals and other commodities.

Reaching that capacity under current conditions is unlikely, however.

“The Danube ports are exposed to the same security risks as Greater Odesa. In addition, water levels are the lowest in 30 years, forcing barges to sail at only about one-third of their carrying capacity. Under these conditions, I don’t believe we can even reach 2.5 mln tons per month,” Horbachov told Latifundist.com.

He added that rail capacity is also limited, with Ukraine able to redirect only an additional 1–1.5 mln tons of cargo per month by rail.

“We could see a repeat of the situation in 2023, but this time the old logistical bottlenecks will be compounded by wartime risks. There is a shortage of barges, while shipowners are increasingly reluctant to operate on the Danube because of attacks. I do not see how exports through this route can increase significantly under such conditions,” he said.

Dmytro Kazanin, owner of logistics company TEUS, told Ekonomichna Pravda that the Danube route is suitable mainly for vessels with a draft of up to 7 metres. Larger vessels already chartered for deep-water ports face far fewer alternatives, forcing traders to seek shipowners willing to accept higher risks in exchange for additional premiums.

He estimates that shipping through the Danube is $20–30/t more expensive than using the ports of Greater Odesa. As a result, market participants are actively assessing alternative logistics options but remain cautious about switching to them.

Kateryna Kononenko, Operations Manager at Avalon Shipping, confirmed that some shipowners have already redirected vessels from Odesa to the Danube, while others have decided to avoid all Ukrainian ports altogether.

Draft restrictions remain another major challenge. The navigable depth between Izmail and Mile 44 is about 6.7 metres, while the Bystre Canal offers only around 5.5 metres. Seasonal low water levels currently make it impossible to fully load vessels requiring a 7-metre draft.

Another obstacle is mandatory port control in the Romanian port of Tulcea. This creates additional risks for older vessels, whose owners fear failing inspections. Romanian authorities have also introduced new declaration requirements, adding further costs to Danube shipments.

Tags: restrictions, Danube ports, Ukraine, export, grain