USDA expects Ukraine’s chicken production and exports to increase

Ukraine’s chicken production could increase to 1.54 mln tons in 2027, according to USDA. This would be 60 thsd tons more than expected in 2026, despite significant war-related risks to the industry.

The main constraints on production growth will remain Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, power supply disruptions and logistics problems. At the same time, large producers continue to adapt their operations to these conditions.

Domestic chicken consumption is forecast to increase by only 11 thsd tons in 2027 to 1.055 mln tons. Chicken continues to gain a larger share of animal protein consumption due to its relatively affordable price, although slow growth in household purchasing power is limiting domestic demand.

Exports are expected to remain the main driver of industry growth, rising by 40 thsd tons to 530 thsd tons. Ukrainian producers will primarily target the EU, where poultry shipped under the tariff-rate quota commands the highest prices. Meanwhile, exports to the UK, which maintains unrestricted market access for Ukrainian poultry, could approach the volume of shipments to the EU in 2027.

Ukraine’s chicken imports, meanwhile, are forecast to decline by 5 thsd tons to 45 thsd tons. Production will remain highly concentrated, with six vertically integrated companies expected to account for more than 75% of Ukraine’s chicken meat output.

Tags: USDA, export, chicken, Ukraine