Cheese imports to Ukraine decline due to attacks

Ukraine’s cheese market is showing signs of change after a prolonged period of stability. Imports are declining, while Ukrainian producers have started raising prices for the first time in a long period.

Security risks are one of the reasons behind the decline in imports. Due to large-scale attacks, Polish suppliers are reluctant to ship cheese to Ukraine without advance payment. At the same time, importers are unwilling to take on additional risks, which could lead to a further decline in import volumes.

This creates more opportunities for Ukrainian cheese producers. Domestic manufacturers could partially fill the niche left by imported products, although the range of Ukrainian and European cheeses differs.

Amid expectations of stronger sales, some major producers have already started raising prices, while most companies are scaling back promotional activity. As a result, retail cheese prices could rise noticeably in the near term.

At the same time, higher prices could negatively affect demand. For some consumers, semi-hard cheese risks shifting from an everyday staple to a product purchased less frequently. This, in turn, could force producers to reconsider plans to increase output in the autumn.

In the first three quarters, total rennet cheese production remained close to last year’s level. However, this stability was mainly supported by higher production of white cheeses, while semi-hard cheese output continued to decline.

Production of processed cheeses and cheese products also remains close to last year’s levels. Output of semi-hard cheese products increased slightly, although the pace of growth remains modest.

Thus, further market developments will depend on two key factors — the availability of imported products and consumers’ response to higher prices.

Tags: imports, Cheese, Ukraine