Russia pretends it does not need a grain deal

UkrAgroConsult

The situation in the Black Sea increasingly resembles a game of “who blinks first.” Russia is signaling that it is in no hurry to return to agreements on safe shipping and is prepared to wait. Amid reports of a new Turkish-UN initiative aimed at halting attacks on vessels, the Kremlin said it had yet to receive specific details. Moscow had previously confirmed receiving Turkish proposals but said no substantive negotiations were underway.

At the same time, Russia’s grain exports show that delaying a deal comes at a cost. The Black Sea has traditionally been the main gateway for Russian grain, accounting for nearly 90% of its seaborne exports. Russian companies are now being forced to increase shipments via the Baltic and Caspian seas and adapt terminals previously used for other cargoes to handle grain. These routes are longer and more expensive and cannot fully replace Black Sea logistics.

The impact is already visible in export figures. According to estimates by the Russian Grain Union, Russia may have exported only around 1 mln tons of wheat in September, compared with 5.7 mln tons a year earlier. Redirecting trade flows allows some shipments to continue, but Russian grain is losing one of its key advantages — a cheap and short route through the Black Sea to major markets in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

Against this backdrop, Turkey and the UN are trying to bring the parties back to negotiations on maritime security. A new shipping agreement would benefit not only Ukraine: restoring normal Black Sea operations would also allow Russian exporters to return to their traditional routes and reduce logistics costs. Behind Moscow’s apparent lack of urgency, therefore, lies a simple question: how long is it prepared “not to blink” if its own grain sector is paying an increasingly high price for the game?

Tags: war, Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, export, grain, prices, wheat