USDA revised estimates of Ukrainian wheat production and exports

The world wheat production in 2023/24 season is forecasted at 784.91 mln tonnes (+1.9 mln tonnes). This is evidenced by the USDA report for January.

Analysts raised the forecast of world wheat exports by 2.35 mln tonnes to 209.54 mln tonnes. Experts estimated the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world at 260.03 mln tonnes (+1.83 mln tonnes).

USDA experts increased their forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY to 23.4 mln tonnes (+0.9 mln tonnes). The export estimate increased to 14 mln tonnes (+1.5 mln tonnes). The forecast of ending stocks was increased by 1.8 million tons to 4.38 million tons.

The forecast for the wheat harvest (49.31 million tons) in the United States remained unchanged. Exports will be at the level of 19.73 million tons. The ending stocks of wheat in the United States will amount to 17.62 million tons, which is 0.3 million tons less than the previous forecast.

Forecast for the main wheat exporters for 2023/24 MY (January report compared to December):

USDA analysts lowered the forecast of wheat production in China in 2023/24 MY by 0.41 mln tonnes to 136.59 mln tonnes, imports estimate – 0.9 mln tonnes, ending stocks – 133.51 (-0.41 mln tonnes).

Tags: crop forecast, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, EU, Canada, USDA Report, wheat, USA, Argentina