USDA analysts lowered wheat crop forecast in Ukraine due to weather

The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 790.8 mln tonnes (-7.4 mln tonnes compared to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for June.

The forecast for world wheat exports is 212.8 million tons (-3.2 million tons). Experts reduced the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 252.2 million tons (-1.34 million tons).

“The forecast of winter wheat production in Russia decreased by 5 million tons to 83 million, as hot and dry weather reduced the prospects for yields after the May frosts. In Ukraine, production will be reduced by 1.5 million tons to 19.5 million due to similar hot and dry weather conditions,” the report says.

Also, analysts lowered the forecast of Ukrainian wheat exports to 13 mln tonnes (-1 mln tonnes), and the forecast of ending stocks – 0.96 mln tonnes (-0.1 mln tonnes).

The forecast for the wheat harvest in the United States is 51.02 million tons (+0.46 million tons). Exports will be at the level of 21.77 million tons (+0.68). The ending stocks of wheat in the United States will amount to 20.64 million tons (-0.21 million tons).

Forecast for major wheat exporters for 2024/25 MY:

USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2024/25 MY at 140 mln tonnes, the imports estimate – 11 mln tonnes, the ending stocks – 132.51 mln tonnes (-0.1 mln tonnes).

Tags: crop forecast, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, China, EU, Canada, USDA Report, wheat, USA, Argentina