US wheat harvest may fall to its lowest level in nearly 150 years

The U.S. wheat area is projected to decline to its lowest level since 1877 in 2026. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), total planted wheat area is estimated at 42.7 million acres, down 6% from last year and 1 million acres below the agency’s March forecast. Winter wheat acreage is expected to fall to 31.5 million acres, marking the lowest level in nearly 150 years.

The decline is being driven by a combination of prolonged drought, extreme heat, crop diseases, and rising production costs. According to U.S. researchers, several consecutive years of unfavorable weather have reduced yields, while weak profitability has encouraged many farmers to cut wheat acreage.

The largest reductions are expected in the country’s key wheat-producing states. In Kansas, where drought has severely stressed crops, spring freezes further damaged yield potential. USDA estimates wheat acreage in the state will decline by nearly 950,000 acres, while Texas is expected to plant 3.9 million fewer acres and Oklahoma 1.35 million fewer acres than a year earlier.

Farmers are also facing sharply higher costs for fuel, fertilizers, and other agricultural inputs. Industry representatives say elevated production costs and uncertainty in global markets are prompting many growers to switch to more profitable crops. As a result, spring wheat area is forecast at 9.39 million acres, down 6% year on year, while durum wheat acreage is projected to decline 16% to 1.83 million acres.

Despite the expected production decline, a sharp increase in bread prices is not anticipated in the near term. USDA forecasts the average farm price for wheat in the 2026/27 season at $6.50 per bushel. However, grain accounts for only a small share of the final retail price of food products. Even so, analysts warn that continued adverse weather and tighter wheat supplies could eventually push flour and bakery prices higher.

Experts note that the United States currently has sufficient wheat stocks to keep flour mills operating without disruption. However, if drought conditions worsen, production costs remain elevated, and farmers continue shifting acreage to more profitable crops, the country could face further declines in wheat production and increasing pressure on the domestic market.

Tags: wheat, USA, crop forecast