US flour production falls to 20-year low for third quarter

US flour production declined by 1.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2026 to 104.863 mln hundredweight (cwt), equivalent to approximately 4.76 mln tons. According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), this was the lowest July–September production volume in 20 years. A similarly low level was last recorded in 2006, when output totaled 104.859 mln cwt. The decline reflects the continuation of a broader downward trend in the US flour milling industry.

Despite lower output, US flour milling capacity continued to expand. Daily production capacity reached 1.629 mln cwt in the third quarter, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, capacity utilization stood at just 83.6%, compared with 86.1% in the third quarter of 2025. The situation improved slightly from the second quarter of 2026, when the operating rate fell to 82.7%. April–June was among the weakest periods for milling capacity utilization in the past 25 years.

US wheat milling volumes also declined. During July–September, flour mills processed 227 mln bushels of wheat, down 4.4 mln bushels, or 1.9%, from the corresponding period in 2025. Meanwhile, production of millfeed, including milling by-products used in animal feed, decreased by 2% to 1.63 mln US short tons.

The sharpest decline was recorded in semolina production, a coarse wheat flour mainly used in pasta manufacturing. Third-quarter output fell by 6% to 7.222 mln cwt, compared with 7.717 mln cwt a year earlier. Production of other flour types declined by 0.9% to 97.641 mln cwt. Capacity utilization in this segment stood at 84.5%, down from 87.2% in the same period last year.

In the second quarter of 2026, US flour production totaled 103.683 mln cwt, slightly below the July–September figure. However, on a year-over-year basis, the US flour milling industry continues to record declines in both flour output and wheat processing volumes. Lower mill utilization despite expanding production capacity indicates that excess capacity remains a challenge for the industry.

Tags: flour, USA