Ukrainian port crisis would be less severe if grain traders had their own fleet – opinion

Having an owned merchant fleet would have significantly softened the blow to Ukraine’s grain industry under the current de facto blockade of deep-sea ports, although it would not have eliminated the problem entirely. This opinion was shared on Facebook by Hennadii Ivanov, Director of BPG Shipping & Kronos Bulkers.

“Imagine Ukrainian grain traders owned their own fleet. Some operators would still be willing to call at Ukrainian ports, allowing exports to continue, at least to some extent. Cargo could be shipped from the Danube to Constanța and then loaded onto owned vessels, maximizing efficiency in logistics, freight, demurrage and related costs. Meanwhile, the fleet itself would continue operating in other regions of the world, while cargo volumes would effectively be hedged based on vessel operating costs,” he explained.

Ivanov estimates that a Supramax vessel transports around 400 thsd tons of cargo annually and, under a balanced freight market, generates approximately $4 mln in annual revenue. This is equivalent to a freight hedge of roughly $9–10 per ton, while freight rates naturally remain correlated with the global shipping market.

He points to the experience of Russian agricultural traders, which began investing in their own fleets as early as 2015 by purchasing second-hand vessels aged 18–23 years and building technical and commercial management capabilities almost from scratch. By 2022, they had assembled sizeable fleets that not only reduced freight costs and improved export competitiveness but also helped maintain operations after sanctions were imposed.

According to Ivanov, Ukraine has seen little progress over the same period. Apart from a handful of large grain traders that continue to operate owned vessels in what he describes as a cautious “trial mode,” there has been no systematic investment in shipping. As a result, freight has once again become a major issue in 2026, just as it was in 2022.

Among the key reasons why Ukrainian investors have avoided investing in shipping, Ivanov cites a lack of willingness to pursue long-term strategies. He contrasts this with Greece, whose supportive legislation helped create one of the world’s leading shipping industries. A vessel typically delivers annual returns of 10–20% over an operating life of 10–25 years, whereas many other investments currently offer 40–60% returns. Consequently, investors tend to postpone long-term decisions, hoping that changes in legislation or port closures will not become an immediate concern.

Psychological factors also play a role. An investor can easily visit and inspect a grain elevator, whereas a vessel may be operating off the coast of Brazil. Ivanov also highlights a lack of trust in experienced shipping professionals with established market reputations. Instead, investors are often influenced by advisers with little practical expertise who are primarily interested in earning commissions, causing many shipping projects to stall before they even begin.

The Director of BPG Shipping & Kronos Bulkers notes that shipping remains one of the world’s most conservative industries, transporting around 90% of global trade. He also points out that leading global agricultural traders, including Bunge and Louis Dreyfus, have long relied either on owned fleets or vessels secured under long-term charter agreements. Therefore, the current freight crisis is far from the first—and, in his view, unfortunately will not be the last.

Tags: Ukraine, export, agricultural products, shipping, Ukrainian ports, grain traders, war