Record sunseed harvest in Russia threatens to drive down prices in Kazakhstan

Russia’s record sunflower seed harvest could increase pressure on domestic prices in Kazakhstan and intensify competition between local farmers and processors. According to analysts, Russia’s sunflower seed production in 2026 could reach 19–21 mln tons, compared with 17.5–17.8 mln tons last year. The increase is driven by an expansion of planted area to nearly 12 mln ha and favorable weather conditions.

According to Zeynolla Abdumanapov, head of the KazGrain National Association of Exporters, limited export opportunities and insufficient processing capacity could lead to increased shipments of Russian sunflower seed to Kazakhstan. Since Russia’s export duty on sunflower seed does not apply to trade within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), local crushing plants could gain access to cheaper raw materials. This could result in lower purchase prices for Kazakh farmers.

A ban on Russian sunflower seed imports is being considered as a possible measure to protect domestic producers. However, KazGrain believes such a step may provide only short-term price support. At the same time, higher domestic raw material costs would weaken the competitiveness of Kazakh processors, which must compete with Russian sunflower oil in international markets.

Another issue is the possible removal of Kazakhstan’s export duty on sunflower seed. This would allow farmers to increase shipments to China, Uzbekistan and other countries, potentially supporting domestic purchase prices. However, processing plants would face stronger competition for raw materials and higher costs. According to Abdumanapov, the export duty has helped develop the domestic processing industry over the past three years, and its removal could threaten the financial stability of some plants.

Tags: prices, sunseed, Russia