Ukraine to harvest over 31 mln tonnes of corn and more than double barley exports — FAS USDA

In the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to increase corn and barley production, while wheat output is projected to decline. This is stated in the forecast by the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA).

Corn

Corn production is forecast at 31.5 million tonnes (+3%), while exports could rise to 26 million tonnes (+26%).

In the current season, shipment activity remains subdued. From October 2025 to February 2026, exports totaled 10.6 million tonnes, down 10% year-on-year.

The EU remains the largest market, with Spain, Italy and the Netherlands importing 4.8 million tonnes. Turkey is the second-largest destination (2.9 million tonnes), followed by Egypt, Tunisia and Israel with a combined 1.6 million tonnes.

Despite this, ending stocks surged sharply to 4.3 million tonnes versus 606,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Wheat

Wheat production in 2026/27 is forecast at 22.7 million tonnes (-5%), while exports may reach 15.5 million tonnes (+19%).

Between July 2025 and February 2026, Ukraine exported 9 million tonnes of wheat, down 24% year-on-year. Around 60% of volumes went to Egypt (2.4 million tonnes), Algeria (1.6 million tonnes) and Indonesia (1.4 million tonnes).

Slower export pace led to higher stocks, rising to 2.97 million tonnes compared to 629,000 tonnes in the previous season.

Barley

Barley production in 2026/27 may increase to 6.1 million tonnes (+9%), while exports could jump to 4.2 million tonnes (+133%).

However, current-season exports declined sharply. From July 2025 to February 2026, shipments totaled 1.3 million tonnes, down 36% year-on-year. About 80% went to China (490,000 tonnes), Turkey (300,000 tonnes), Libya (138,000 tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (121,000 tonnes).

Due to weak exports, ending stocks rose to 1.95 million tonnes versus 305,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Additional factors

FAS also highlights a general slowdown in Ukraine’s grain export momentum. Average monthly shipments of wheat, barley and corn from July 2025 to March 2026 were 22% lower than a year earlier.

The EU is gradually losing its position as a key market, accounting for 29% of exports in 2025 versus 41% in 2024. This mainly affected wheat and barley after the introduction of import quotas in October 2025.

Additional pressure comes from low global prices and high inventories, while Ukrainian farmers often hold stocks in anticipation of better market conditions.